Cover Story 
 

Cover Story

Delicate Balancing Act

Pakistan’s foreign policy has increasingly encompassed economic dimensions, recognising that national interest is not solely defined by security but also by economic stability and growth.

By Ambassador (R) Naghmana A Hashmi | March 2025


Pakistan’s foreign policy has evolved significantly since its inception in 1947, shaped by a complex interplay of historical, political, and social factors. It presents a multifaceted interaction of short-term exigencies and elements of long-term strategy shaped by geopolitical, geostrategic, geo-economic, and domestic factors.

To understand Pakistan’s foreign policy, it is essential to contextualise it within the framework of its historical narrative and national identity. The creation of Pakistan was predicated on the notion of a separate Muslim identity within the Indian subcontinent. Consequently, the quest for sovereignty and recognition on the global stage has been a core tenet of its foreign policy. The events of partition, coupled with enduring threats from India over Kashmir and Afghanistan over the unresolved issue of the Durand Line, have necessitated the need for a strong defense strategy that continues to shape Pakistan’s strategic vision. This historical backdrop influences our contemporary foreign policy, wherein national interest is intrinsically linked to territorial integrity and sovereignty.

Pakistan’s geographical positioning, bordering India, Afghanistan, Iran, and China, places the country at the nexus of critical geopolitical dynamics. Pakistan’s foreign policy reflects a strategic vision that seeks to leverage its location to bolster its national interests. The All-Weather Strategic Cooperative Partnership with China, encapsulated in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), exemplifies this approach. CPEC aims to enhance economic development through infrastructure investment and serves as a bulwark against Indian hegemony in South Asia. This partnership aligns with our long-term vision of creating a multipolar world order wherein it can assert its influence and counterbalance regional adversaries.

Conversely, relations with the United States have fluctuated, characterised by periods of cooperation and tension. The Cold War era marked a significant alignment with the U.S. against the Soviet Union, while the post-9/11 period saw Pakistan positioned as a critical ally in the war on terror. However, the dependence on U.S. military and economic aid has often been seen as a double-edged sword, leading to a precarious balancing act between upholding national interests and adhering to external pressures. This dynamic illustrates the complexities of our foreign policy, where strategic alliances are formed and reformed by shifting global power structures.

The growing strategic rivalry between the United States and China directly impacts Pakistan’s foreign policy. The fact that India is the strategic partner of choice for the U.S. and a counterweight to China makes our predicament even more difficult. Pakistan-India relations have only deteriorated over time, coming now to almost a point where recovery seems elusive, especially in light of India’s unilateral actions in Kashmir. Similarly, Pakistan-Afghanistan relations remain a challenge despite the incredible sacrifices Pakistan has made for Afghanistan since 1979.

Structural imperatives stemming from an international system over which we have little control have also impacted Pakistan’s foreign policy, mainly after the 1979 and 2001 invasions of Afghanistan, respectively. On both occasions, Pakistan couldn’t resist the developing security situation on its western border. During both episodes, while Pakistan remained the United States’ most steadfast ally, it retained its close ties with China, demonstrating that Pakistan could ably balance its foreign policy to best serve its national interest, both short and long-term national interests.

The defining feature of the 21st century at the global geostrategic level is, and will remain, the growing US-China competition and rivalry. This has put Pakistan in an uneasy position as it seems determined to keep the balance between its All-Weather Strategic Cooperation with China and its transactional relationship with the U.S. This is evident in the United States’ sharp criticism of the BRI, of which the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is the pilot project and the most critical corridor for the overall success of BRI.

As China grows in economic and military strength, developing economic, political, and security links worldwide, the intensity of the China-US rivalry will rise. The U.S. has declared China as the number one security threat and is determined to implement its policy of containment of China. China and the U.S.A. are now caught in what has been described as Thucydides’s Trap by Graham Allison in his book, “Destined for War.” Whether in managing their relationship, the US and China can avoid a war is a question that defies any clear and definitive answer.


The strengthening of the US Alliances in the Indo-Pacific region, the deepening of strategic partnership with India, the revival of the QUAD, the establishment of AUKUS, US economic and trade sanctions against China, and efforts to incite political trouble inside China, rearming Japan and courting the Philippines and Vietnam in South-East Asia are efforts to dilute China’s growing influence. Any escalation of conflict between the U.S. and China will engulf the Indian Ocean and will bring India and Pakistan face to face in our backyard. As we attempt to navigate between the two powers, Pakistan’s two key foreign policy goals - ensuring economic recovery and traditional security - will become targets if we do not step carefully in this minefield of geostrategic and geo-economic flux.

Pakistan’s two key foreign policy goals - ensuring economic recovery and traditional security - will become targets if we do not step carefully in this minefield of geostrategic and geo-economic flux.

The challenge of our foreign policy is to avoid courting the displeasure of the U.S. while maintaining our strategic partnership with China on solid footing and fast-tracking the completion of the second phase of CPEC and high-quality development and industrialization. The foreign policy must focus on promoting regional peace with neighboring countries, which will curtail military threats that compromise economic gains, and, finally, continue global multilateral engagements to eliminate the scenarios where we are pushed to make difficult choices.

Pakistan, a country historically positioned in a complex web of regional and international relationships, is at a crucial juncture. The dynamics of US-China competition present substantial challenges and unique opportunities for Pakistan’s foreign policy. The extent to which this competition influences Pakistan’s foreign policy directions and the interplay of strategic partnerships, economic dependencies, and regional security considerations must be carefully considered and calibrated.

The situation is further complicated by the United States’ fluctuating engagement in the region, especially in light of its strategic interests in Afghanistan and its rivalry with China. Moreover, the US has leveraged its relationships with India to counterbalance China, which poses a direct challenge to Pakistan’s strategic interests.

The strengthening of US-India ties, particularly through defense agreements and military cooperation, has disturbed the strategic balance in South Asia, compelling Islamabad to reassess its diplomatic strategies and military postures. As a result, Pakistan is compelled to adopt a multifaceted approach that balances its relationships with the two major powers while addressing internal and regional challenges.
Conversely, China’s support for Pakistan serves to counterbalance Indian military capabilities and enhance Pakistan’s deterrent posture. The Sino-Pakistani military cooperation, encompassing arms transfers and joint military exercises, reinforces Pakistan’s regional strategic position. However, the intertwining of military alliances and regional conflicts complicates Pakistan’s foreign policy, as it must navigate the delicate balance between supporting its allies and addressing the existential threats posed by India.

Endowed with strategic significance due to its geographical location, Pakistan’s approach to navigating these complexities is pivotal for its national interests. Pakistan’s security and development will depend on how it maneuvers through the intricate geopolitical terrain while safeguarding and advancing its national interests.

Despite these challenges, the U.S.-China geopolitical competition has also opened avenues for Pakistan to enhance its foreign policy objectives. The deepening of Pakistan-China relations, particularly through CPEC, has provided us with critical economic support and infrastructure development opportunities. China’s investment is a counterbalance to US influence in the region, allowing Pakistan to assert its sovereignty and economic independence.

The economic implications of US-China competition necessitate a delicate balancing act for Pakistan, as it seeks to harness the benefits of CPEC, which come with challenges, including concerns over debt sustainability and the need for effective governance to ensure successful project implementation. Pakistan’s government must navigate these challenges while harnessing the potential of CPEC to enhance its economic resilience.

Today, we are faced with an unstable Afghanistan with the Taliban and their extremist ideology gripping Afghanistan, the threat posed by indigenous and external terrorist groups, and widespread instability in the Middle East. These threats justify and contribute to a militarized security posture that dictates our approach to regional security. These traditional security dynamics will persist for the foreseeable future in our foreign policy, making any meaningful forward movement for improving relations with our neighbours, particularly with India, difficult, if not impossible.

Moreover, India’s growing military capabilities and strategic partnerships with other global powers have compelled Pakistan to recalibrate its foreign policy. The introduction of nuclear weapons into the regional equation has created a precarious balance of power whereby both nations are engaged in a continuous arms race. In this context, Pakistan’s foreign policy seeks to ensure deterrence while simultaneously pursuing diplomatic avenues to address security concerns. The establishment of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and participation in various multilateral forums reflect Pakistan’s intent to foster cooperative regional relationships despite ongoing tensions with India.

In recent years, Pakistan’s foreign policy has increasingly encompassed economic dimensions, recognising that national interest is not solely defined by security but also by economic stability and growth. The pursuit of trade partnerships and foreign investment is emblematic of a strategic vision that acknowledges the interconnectedness of global economies. Pakistan’s engagement with international financial institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), illustrates the balancing act between domestic economic requirements and the imperatives of global economic governance.

Furthermore, the diversification of trade partnerships, particularly with countries in the Middle East and Central Asia, underscores Pakistan’s ambition to integrate more fully into the global economy. This shift is also evident in its active participation in initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which aims to enhance connectivity and trade across Asia. Such economic diplomacy indicates a long-term strategic vision prioritizing sustainable development and economic resilience as integral components of national interest.

Pakistan’s navigation of the complex geopolitical landscape is a reflection of its strategic imperatives to safeguard and advance national interests. Pakistan is actively engaged with the challenges and opportunities arising from its geopolitical context by cultivating strategic partnerships, addressing regional security concerns, and pursuing economic initiatives. However, the success of these strategies hinges on effective governance, political stability, and the ability to adapt to the evolving dynamics of international relations. As Pakistan continues to chart its course, the interplay of domestic and international factors will remain crucial in shaping its future trajectory in the global arena.

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