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Narendra Modi remains in office, though his party’s strategy of ramping up anti-Muslim rhetoric miserably failed to secure the expected support from Hindu voters.

By Muhammad Omar Iftikhar | August 2024

In a surprising turn of events, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has lost its national majority after facing significant losses in key states, particularly Uttar Pradesh. This marks an unprecedented and dramatic shift in the political landscape dominated by the BJP for the past decade.

Despite emerging as the single largest party in the Lok Sabha, the BJP fell short of its previous performances from 2014 and 2019. The party secured only 240 seats, well below the 272-seat majority mark, leaving its aficionados in a state of shock. The opposition alliance, INDIA, led by the Indian National Congress (INC) party, won 232 seats, surpassing expectations and exit polls.

Narendra Modi and the BJP will rely on coalition partners, which has never been in the political equation before. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won 293 seats, ensuring a coalition government.

“India will likely have an NDA government, where the BJP does not have a majority on their own, and coalition politics will come into real play,” says Sandeep Shastri, national coordinator of the Lokniti Network at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS).

Following the results, Modi declared victory for the NDA coalition, addressing supporters at the BJP headquarters in New Delhi. However, analysts have raised questions about the BJP’s strategy. During the election campaign, Modi increasingly focused on fear-mongering about an alleged plot by the Opposition to favor Muslims over the Hindu majority.

The Opposition targeted Modi’s economic track record, highlighting high inflation and unemployment. The BJP’s campaign slogan, “Abki baar, 400 paar” (This time, more than 400), aimed for over 400 seats but was seen as overconfident amid widespread economic concerns.

The results indicate a “sleepwalking of the BJP into a disaster,” says Asim Ali, a political analyst and columnist. The BJP’s reduced mandate draws comparisons to the 2004 elections when an incumbent BJP government under Atal Bihari Vajpayee also faced unexpected defeat. Despite setbacks, the BJP remains the largest party in parliament and has formed the next government with its NDA allies. The Congress, on the other hand, won 99 seats, less than half of the BJP’s tally.


Modi emphasized this point in his public address, highlighting that the BJP alone won more seats than all its opponents combined. However, two regional parties, Janata Dal-United and Telugu Desam Party, will play crucial roles in the formation of the next government.

The BJP faced significant losses in key states, including Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra. In Uttar Pradesh, the party won just 33 out of 80 seats, a sharp decline from its previous tally. The BJP also suffered losses in Maharashtra, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Punjab, states affected by agrarian crises and farm protests.

Congress supporters celebrated the results, seeing the increased opposition presence as a chance to challenge the BJP’s dominance. The changed parliamentary composition is expected to make passing laws more difficult for the BJP. Analysts predict that the BJP will need to introspect and address questions about Modi’s leadership and the party’s strategy. Over the past decade, India has seen a decline in democratic indices under the BJP, and a coalition government could provide more checks and balances.

For many Indian Muslims, the election outcome is a relief. Akbar Khan, a waste picker from New Delhi, expressed his satisfaction, noting the dissatisfaction among economically backward communities with Modi’s divisive politics. Despite the reduced mandate, Modi remains in office, though his party’s strategy of ramping up anti-Muslim rhetoric miserably failed to secure the expected support from Hindu voters. The BJP’s vote share dropped to 36.6 percent, leading to a decrease in parliamentary seats from 303 to 240. For the first time in 15 years, the BJP did not win the most seats in Uttar Pradesh, a crucial state for national elections. The party also failed to make significant gains in southern states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala, where regional parties and social justice policies held strong appeal.

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